Nothing lasts forever – tyrants eventually fall

If someone stays too long in one position, it can't end well. Very few autocrats are known in world history whose transition from power has been peaceful. Too often even capable leaders have made the mistake of falling in love with power and a kind of omnipotence.

At the moment, there are probably a couple of autocrats in Europe, whose reigns have no end in sight – one is the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, the other is the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. Maybe we'll get rid of these guys when it's time to leave them. Why do I not trust the democratic transition in either country? The reason is probably very simple; both countries lack a counterforce, i.e. a united opposition that would be able to challenge the rulers.

In recent weeks, rumblings began to be heard from Syria, when fragmented armed groups began to take over the country's largest cities. It somehow sounded very strange because President Assad's position still seemed very strong. The background was, of course, the military support of Russia and Iran against the rebels.

The Syrian civil war has been ongoing since 2011. It has been a very sad drama, where the civilian population of the country has paid the highest price for everything. Almost half a million Syrians have died during the war, and more than five million civilians have fled the country. One could argue that Syria has been hell on earth for too long.

Today, December 8, Syrian opposition forces captured the country's capital, Damascus. At the same time, they declared that the more than 50-year reign of the Assads had come to an end. What caused President Assad's power to run out in an instant? There are probably a couple of reasons for that – Russian support ran out because Russia has invested almost all of its forces in the war in Ukraine. Another big reason is a weakened Iran, whose credibility has suffered significantly in recent months after Israel attacked it effectively.

I hope with all my heart that the Syrian people will be able to live in peace in the future. At the moment, I am most afraid of the disparate opposition factions in Syria, which may drift into mutual quarrels over, for example, the distribution of power. At worst, this could lead to a state of chaos and a new civil war. It is difficult for us Westerners to accept the fact that the transition from a monopoly to a Western democracy is not possible in an instant. In general, one should only hope that parties that have the support of the people would come to power in Damascus.

Finally, it should also be mentioned that the fall of President Assad is one of the biggest losses of prestige for the Kremlin in a long time. The collapse of the old regime also means that Russian military bases will be allowed to leave Syrian soil. The lights burn nonstop in the Kremlin – and for a reason!

"When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right." – Victor Hugo